Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
